What CEOs talked about in Q1 2025: Tariffs, rising uncertainty, and agentic AI

Apr 01, 2025 by admin

In short

According to the latest What CEOs Talked About report, three themes stood out in CEOs’ minds in Q1 2025: Tariffs, uncertainty, and AI (with agentic AI seeing the most gains).
Discussions about recruiting dropped as mentions of hiring freezes spiked.

Why it matters

The prioritization of specific topics by CEOs may influence investment in these areas.

The big picture

New administration’s policies reshaped economic outlook. Going into 2025, the global GDP growth projection for the year was 3.3%, with the US forecasted to experience 2.4% growth. However, Q1 2025 brought about a new US government administration and, with it, dramatic shifts in US trade and economic policies. Barely a month into his term, US President Trump announced trade tariffs not only against traditional economic foes like China but also against close allies and friends, including Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Each party announced reciprocal tariffs, and as a result, investors have shown concern about the future of the US economy, as indices like NASDAQ have dramatically dropped since mid-February 2025. Since then, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised the global GDP growth forecast down to 3.1% in 2025 and the US projection to 2.2%.

CEOs consider impacts of tariffs and their organizations’ headcounts. According to IoT Analytics’ 66-page What CEOs Talked About in Q1 2025 report (published late March 2025), CEOs have taken notice of the impact of these tariffs on their own operations and bottom lines. In Q1 2025, mentions of the keyword tariff during the earnings calls of stock-listed companies jumped 190% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). In turn, mentions of uncertainty also significantly climbed 49% QoQ. Amid these economic concerns, executives appear to be reconsidering their headcounts, as mentions of recruiting declined 8% QoQ while mentions of hiring freezes grew 286% QoQ.

While the full What CEOs Talked About report further explores many more industry-specific keyword trends like those mentioned above—including deep dives, key quotes from CEOs on the leading topics, and an analysis of CEO business sentiments across industries and regions—the following is a look at the 3 key rising themes and 1 standout declining theme in the first quarter of 2025.

The insights from this article are based on

Quarterly trend report: What CEOs talked about in Q1 2025

A 69-page report on the trends that emerged in Q1/2025 earnings calls. The report is based on data from 8,000+ corporate earnings calls of US-listed companies from Q1 2025 and Q4 2024.

Download report sample

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Key rising themes in Q1 2025

1. Tariffs

Tariff discussions hit post-2019 peak. Corporate earnings calls mentioning the keyword tariffs climbed to 43% in Q1 2025, a 190% jump compared to Q4 2024. The previous peak was 20.4% in Q3 2019, less than half of the current level. The climb in tariff discussions began in Q3 2024, just before the US elections, reaching 7% of calls. After the elections, talks about tariffs had climbed to 15% of calls.

CEOs split on tariff impacts. Much like general discussions about the impact of tariffs among various news outlets, many CEOs appeared concerned about what tariffs mean to prices in the US market, as tariffs on imports often lead to price increases to make up for the new costs. These CEOs also shared their strategies on how their organizations will work around the tariffs, such as adjusting supply chains or localizing production.

Key CEO quotes about price increases and adjustments due to tariffs

“And whatever tariff we cannot mitigate, we view that as an input cost. And as our input costs go up, it may require us to adjust prices.”

Jeff Clarke, COO, Dell Technologies Inc., February 28, 2025

“[We] have some products that are produced in Mexico and destined for the US, but similar production that occurs in the US where the destination is outside the United States. We are swapping those out, moving the production for non-US customers outside the US in order to create capacity to manufacture production for US customers inside the US. It’s a small portion of our overall tariff-impacted operations, but a good example of quick moves we can make.”

Christian Rothe, CFO, Rockwell Inc, February 10, 2025

Not all CEOs had concerns about the impact of the US tariffs, though. Some, in fact, saw benefits. Companies that produce products locally in tariff-affected regions expect to benefit from their importing competitors having to raise their prices. Further, companies that otherwise do not have a large footprint in tariff-affected regions expect to profit from higher global market prices.

2. Uncertainty

Uncertainty rises with tariffs, reaching more than a third of earnings calls. CEOs discussed uncertainty in 35% of earnings calls, 49% higher QoQ. Executives are faced with a broad set of uncertainties at the beginning of 2025, ranging from uncertainty over the economic outlook and interest rates to military alliances to tariffs. The sharp increase from the previous quarter suggests that these are not merely routine concerns but, rather, a growing sense of unease about the stability of several key factors influencing business decisions. This confluence of factors is making long-term planning and investment decisions exceptionally challenging.

EMEA and industrial sector companies mention uncertainty the most. CEOs of companies based in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) discussed uncertainty the most at 38% of earnings calls (+31% QoQ), with those in North America close behind at 36% (+51% QoQ). CEOs of companies based in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region doubled their mentions of uncertainty, jumping from 14% of earnings calls in Q4 2024 to 29% in Q1 2025. Looking at mentions by sector, CEOs of companies in the industrial sector mentioned uncertainty the most at 48% of earnings calls (+36% QoQ), while the utilities sector experienced the highest increase of mentions, rising 122% QoQ to 37% of earnings calls.

Key CEO quotes on economic uncertainty

“The level of uncertainty out there is higher than it was before.”

Diego De Giorgi, CFO, Standard Chartered PLC, January 30, 2025

“And maybe there are some pockets in some industries where some aspects of the policy uncertainty that we might be facing are making them a little bit more cautious than they otherwise would be about what they’re executing in the near term.”

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co., January 15, 2024

3. AI and agentic AI

Interest in AI still increasing—partly driven by agentic AI. Though poised to have become the top topic of earnings calls in Q1 2025, AI remained the 2nd most discussed topic at 39% (+12% QoQ), surpassed only by discussions about tariffs. Helping to propel the increased mention of AI in Q1 2025 were discussions around agentic AI—AI systems designed to act autonomously in making decisions and taking actions to achieve specific goals. Discussions regarding agentic AI reached 2.2% of earnings calls in Q1 2025, rising 275% QoQ. In Q1 2025, mentions of agentic AI surpassed mentions of related AI systems, such as copilot, chatbot, and ChatGPT, all under 2% of earnings calls.

Key CEO quotes on agentic AI

“As we free up our customers from manual low-value tasks, we plan to bring additional advisory capabilities, starting with tax planning later this year through our agentic AI assistant that allows our customers to provide incremental value to their clients while generating additional revenue for their practices.”

Steve Hasker, CEO, Thomson Reuters Corporation, February 06, 2025

“That whole part of using Agentic AI to revolutionize the way we work inside companies, that’s just starting.”

Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA, February 25, 2025

Of course, another AI topic entered the fray in Q1 2025: China-based AI startup DeepSeek’s R1 generative AI model. Released in late January 2025, news about a fairly open model alleged to have lower training and running costs while being on par with many top-tier models sent many tech stocks spiraling for several days. Even though more came out about R1’s true costs and eased many investors, questions remained about the impact of open, cost-efficient models along the generative AI value chain.

Declining theme in Q1 2025

Recruiting

Recruiting dropped in importance while layoffs are up. Economic uncertainty started to impact discussions about the labor market. Talks regarding recruiting dropped 8% QoQ to 4% of earnings calls in Q1 2025, while mentions of hiring freezes spiked, climbing 286% QoQ (though still only appearing in a low percentage of calls). At the same time, mentions of layoffs increased by 28%. Labor markets of leading economies such as the United States, Germany, and Japan have proven to be resilient in Q1 2025, but while overall employment remains strong, a chill appears to be settling over corporate sentiment regarding future workforce expansion. This could point to a potential weakening of labor market dynamism beneath the surface of the seemingly healthy headline numbers.

What it means for CEOs

5 key questions that CEOs should ask themselves based on the insights in this article:

Tariff exposure and resilience – How vulnerable are our supply chains and margins to the new tariffs, and what immediate actions can we take to mitigate the impact?
Scenario planning – Do we have robust contingency plans in place for continued or escalating geopolitical and trade uncertainty?
Regional risk balance – Are we overexposed to high-uncertainty regions, and should we reconsider our footprint or regional strategy?
AI opportunity evaluation – Are we investing fast enough—and wisely enough—in agentic AI to boost productivity amid workforce constraints?
Communication with investors – Are we clearly articulating our risk mitigation strategies and technology priorities to calm investor concerns?

Disclosure

Companies mentioned in this article—along with their products—are used as examples to showcase market developments. No company paid or received preferential treatment in this article, and it is at the discretion of the analyst to select which examples are used. IoT Analytics makes efforts to vary the companies and products mentioned to help shine attention to the numerous IoT and related technology market players.

It is worth noting that IoT Analytics may have commercial relationships with some companies mentioned in its articles, as some companies license IoT Analytics market research. However, for confidentiality, IoT Analytics cannot disclose individual relationships. Please contact compliance@iot-analytics.com for any questions or concerns on this front.

What CEOs talked about in Q1 2025: Tariffs, rising uncertainty, and agentic AI

In short

Why it matters

The big picture